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The worst was avoided. But it was still pretty bad.
Before the Anchorage summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the biggest fear for Ukraine was that the American and Russian presidents would emerge brandishing a “peace agreement”.
Trump’s pre-summit talk of “land swaps” suggested that America might agree to Ukraine permanently ceding territory to Russia against the backdrop of a resumption of US-Russian business ties.
That did not happen. And so Ukraine was not forced into the potentially disastrous position of having to reject a deal that Trump had agreed to.
The imagery of the summit was, however, deeply unfortunate. American troops literally rolled out the red carpet for Putin, an indicted war criminal who has invaded a sovereign neighbour and started the bloodiest conflict in Europe since 1945. The Russian leader has been invited in from the cold.
Putin seemed pleased at the closing press conference in Alaska — as well he might be. For now, Trump has dropped the talk of intensifying sanctions on Russia. And he has also endorsed the Russian leader’s suggestion that it would be better to aim for a comprehensive peace settlement rather than a ceasefire followed by talks, which was the Ukrainian and European proposal.
But in a sense, the Anchorage summit was a missed opportunity for Putin. The ambiguous nature of the outcome, with no agreed text, gives the Europeans and Ukrainians an opportunity to try to mould Trump’s post-summit thinking.
Putin was clearly alive to this possibility and warned the Europeans and Ukrainians not to “throw a wrench” into the peace process.
In reality, Russia, Europe — and the Ukrainians under European tutelage — now all have the same playbook for dealing with Trump. The strategy is to flatter Trump, to indulge his pet obsessions and never to contradict him.
Once those foundations are laid, Trump’s interlocutors try to push the US president in their direction, picking up on the things he has said that sound potentially helpful to their cause and subtly slipping in their own ideas. The plan is to take Trump’s grandiloquent statements and then fill in the detail for him.
You could see Putin following this strategy in Alaska. At the press conference, the Russian leader went out of his way to endorse one of Trump’s favourite talking points: that the war in Ukraine would never have happened if he, rather than Joe Biden, had been president in 2022. Trump later told a television interviewer that Putin had told him that the 2020 presidential poll was a “rigged election”.
Having flattered Trump and indulged his obsessions, Putin was then able to slip in his own favoured ideas. At the closing press conference, while Trump smiled indulgently, Putin talked of the need for a comprehensive peace settlement that addressed the root causes of the conflict.
But for the Russian president, the fundamental cause of the conflict was Ukraine’s aspiration to be a sovereign democracy that had escaped domination by Moscow. Putin also mentioned the need for a “fair balance of security” in Europe. That sounded like a reference to the demands that Moscow made in 2021 for the removal of Nato forces from the Baltic States and Poland.
But Europe and Ukraine have also learnt how to play this game of flattery, followed by filling in the details. You could see the game plan at work in the tweet issued by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after he had talked to Trump.
The Ukrainian leader emphasised his gratitude to the US president and his willingness to attend a trilateral summit with Putin. (It is a pretty safe bet that Putin will not agree to that). In the last paragraph, he slipped in the crucial detail: “We also discussed positive signals from the American side regarding participation in guaranteeing Ukraine’s security.”
Trump’s apparently throwaway comment — that the US might, after all, get involved in guaranteeing Ukrainian security — is what the Europeans will want to make the central takeaway from Anchorage.
A social media post from Finnish President Alexander Stubb, perhaps Europe’s foremost Trump-whisperer, followed the same lines. First the thank you to the US president. Then the vital detail: “Strong and credible security guarantees for Ukraine are a crucial element for sustainable peace.”
Over the coming days and weeks, the goal of the Ukrainians and the Europeans will be to turn a near disaster into a success. The hope is that the warm glow that Trump evidently felt after meeting Putin will fade.
As it becomes clear that Russia is stepping up its attacks on Ukraine, with further civilian casualties, Trump may become frustrated and disillusioned with Putin. At that point, it could be possible to get the US to refocus on expanding sanctions on Russia — and increasing aid to Ukraine.
Meanwhile the war grinds on.
#Russia #Ukraine #Europe #manipulate #Trump
